What we know about the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh

The assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in the Iranian capital Tehran has rocked the Middle East, threatening to further destabilize the region and jeopardize ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas over the war in Gaza.

The attack on Haniyeh came in the early hours of Wednesday morning, with Hamas pointing the finger at Israel – which has so far declined to comment.

All eyes will now focus on two key questions. What happens to Gaza hostage and ceasefire negotiations, given Haniyeh headed up the group’s political operations from overseas and acted as a key interlocuter with international mediators? And will this strike inside Iran prove to be the catalyst for a potential full-blown regional war?

Here’s what we know so far.

Haniyeh had been in Tehran for the inauguration of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, and was staying in a residence for veterans in the north of the city, state-affiliated news outlet Fars reported.

Haniyeh was hit directly by a rocket in the room in which he was staying, Hamas spokesperson and deputy head Khalil Al-Hayya said at a news conference in Tehran. He said Israel would “pay the price” for the “heinous crime.”

Earlier, Iranian state media IRNA reported that an “airborne guided projectile” had targeted the building at around 2 a.m. local time.

IRNA said Haniyeh’s bodyguard was also killed, and that further investigations are underway to determine the details of the operation and the position from where the projectile was fired.

Shortly afterward, Hamas decried what it called a “Zionist strike” and a “grave escalation” in its decades long conflict with Israel.

One Hamas official said the group is “ready to pay various prices” and that the “moment of truth has come,” adding: “This assassination will not achieve the goals of the occupation and will not push Hamas to surrender.”

When asked for comment, Israel’s military said it “doesn’t respond to reports in the foreign media.”

Haniyeh, 62, was born in a refugee camp near Gaza City, and joined Hamas in the late 1980s during the First Intifada, or uprising. As Hamas grew in power, Haniyeh rose through the ranks – being appointed part of a secret “collective leadership” in 2004.

He became political chief of Hamas in 2017. The following year, he was named a “specially designated global terrorist” by the United States.

Despite that designation – and unlike Hamas’ military leadership – Haniyeh travelled globally, meeting with world figures as the political head of the organization.

During the war with Israel in Gaza he has taken a central role in hostage and ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas.

Earlier this spring, he said Hamas was willing to strike a deal – but it would require Israel withdrawing from Gaza and a guarantee to cease fighting in the enclave permanently, demands that Israel has called “unacceptable.”

Haniyeh was in touch with mediators in Qatar and Egypt as recently as early July. Those talks now hang in the balance, despite some hope earlier this month that they were nearing a framework agreement.

A source with knowledge of the negotiations told CNN Wednesday that Haniyeh’s death could “complicate mediation talks.” The source said Haniyeh was “instrumental” in getting certain breakthroughs in negotiations and – along with the Hamas military leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar – was a “key decision maker.”

“How can mediation succeed when one party assassinates the negotiator on other side?” Qatar’s Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani, a mediator on the talks, posted on X on Wednesday. Qatar’s capital, Doha, also hosts the main Hamas political bureau. “Peace needs serious partners & a global stance against the disregard for human life,” Al-Thani wrote.

Haniyeh’s death “will have significant influence on those negotiations,” CNN Political and Foreign Policy Analyst Barak Ravid said on Wednesday.

In a statement after the strike, the Hostages and Missing Families Forum urged the Israeli government “to decisively advance negotiations,” to secure the release of the hostages who have been held in Gaza since the October 7 attack on Israel.

“While military operations over the past 10 months have achieved significant security gains, true achievement can only be realized with the release of all 115 hostages still in captivity,” it said.

“The deal proposed by the Israeli government and supported by President Biden represents the only viable path to secure their freedom, allowing the living to begin rehabilitation and the murdered to receive proper burial.”

Leaders from around the region have weighed in, with some condemning the killing and voicing alarm about the potential fallout.

Palestinian leaders, including the Palestinian president and prime minister – who come from factions that have deep historical rivalries with Hamas – have condemned the killing and called for Palestinian “national unity.”

The White House has seen the reports of Haniyeh’s killing, a spokesperson said, but declined to immediately comment further. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said he does not think war in the Middle East is inevitable, but that the US would help defend Israel if it were attacked.

Leaders from Russia and Turkey have both decried the assassination, warning it would lead to larger conflicts in the region.

Other Iran-backed militant groups have also voiced sympathy – including Hezbollah, based in Lebanon, and the Houthis in Yemen.

News of Haniyeh’s killing came just hours after Israel said it had killed Hezbollah’s most senior military official, Fu’ad Shukr, in a drone strike in Beirut, Lebanon.

The group has not confirmed Shukr’s death, but said on Wednesday he “was present” at the time of the strike.

If true, Shukr would be the most high-ranking Hezbollah official to have been assassinated since 2016 when Mustafa Badreddine, the group’s top commander at the time, was killed in Syria.

Whatever the fate of Shukr, Wednesday’s strike marked the most serious Israeli escalation since confrontations between Hezbollah and Israel began on October 8.

CNN’s Kareem Khadder, Kareem El Damanhoury, Lucas Lilieholm, Negar Mahmoodi, Mostafa Salem, Jessie Gretener, Edward Szekeres, Tanem Zaman, Colin McCullough, Sergey Gudkov, Mike Schwartz and Alex Marquardt contributed reporting.